The Reality Check Episode 52

Scifi vs UFO Reporting Interview (David Clarke) + Zombies! Study Interview with Robert Smith?

Part 1:

According to BBC, there are newly released documents show that UFO sightings in the UK leapt five-fold in the same year that the alien invader blockbuster Independence Day was released. So, it there a link between the UFO sightings and movies? 

In the movie Independence Day, Earth's major cities were all attacked by UFOs, and in the end Will Smith saved the day. 

Statistics from the documents the Ministry of Defense said that there are 117 sightings of UFOs in 1995, and it increased to 609 in 1996 after the movie came out. This was also the year when "The X-files were at the height of its popularity in the UK. 

David Clarke, an expert on UFO sighting based at Sheffield Hallam University, believes there is a link between sightings and science-fiction. He said: "The more that alien life is covered in films or television documentaries, the more people look up at the sky and don't look down at their feet. Maybe what they are seeing is ordinary, like an aircraft, but because they are looking for an UFO, they think it is one."

It is difficult to prove, he says, but there is a correlation between films and what people are reporting as strange objects in the sky.

The year with the most sightings was 1978, when Steven Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind was released in the UK.

David Clarke said: "The lows are also interesting. After 9/11, there were a few years when everyone was distracted by what was going on elsewhere in the world, and then the last couple of years there seems to have been more sightings, possibly due to the Chinese lanterns being released at weddings and festivals."

Of the cases that remained unexplained, says Mr. Clarke, most were difficult to investigate with accuracy because they happened long before the investigation. Clarke said: "But within all this noise, there is a genuine unexplained phenomenon. I don't think it's aliens but there is something peculiar. Possibly what people are seeing are atmospheric phenomena like ball lighting. A lot of people believe in UFOs and want to believe in them as a reaction to scientists, who can now explain where we come from and the beginning of the universe. UFOs have become an anti-science symbol that people can rally around. Some things are unexplained and people love that mystery."

Part 2:

Zombie Math Equations

Zombie! Study Interview with Robert Smith?.

We now have found a mathematical way to get rid of the zombies, if they really do appear. 

First you start with a basic model that captures the important elements of the "biology". In this case, individuals could be susceptible humans, infected zombies, or the dead, waiting to be reanimated. Then you use evidence and data to refine the model: adding in a latent period, quarantine, a possible cure, or swift, intense attacks by the army. By considering the biology hand-in-hand with the mathematics, we can refine the process until we have a fuller understanding of the situation. And the mathematics leads us to solutions: a critical quarantine level, a certain strength of drug, how often the army needs to attack the zombies. The process allowed us to decide these things in advance, before the disease has spread.

By modeling zombies, we learn about precess of dealing with unfamiliar biology. When the zombie project was completed, it was a few months before swine flu appeared. Now there's a large-scale pandemic sweeping the world and we might need to take big decisions, often without knowing all the facts. If we wait too long, we lose out advantage. What to do?

Zombie Math Graphs

Mathematical modeling can step in. The same process which leads us from the biology to the equations and back again can be applied to a new, unfamiliar disease. Or to an existing, but neglected disease. Many diseases in the developing world kill hundreds and thousands of people a year, yet they receive very little attention. For example, Chagas' Disease kills 50000 people a year in South America. More than the total number of death from SARS, West Nile virus and bird flu put together. Yet, it's largely unknown elsewhere.

Mathematical modeling can analyse intervention strategies, track the spread of the disease and determine which measures might work and which might be doomed to failure. All without costly clinical trails or long delays while data is collected.